World Cup Qatar Model

 Hey everyone-

Thanks for stopping by to check out my new blog where I'm going to post updates on my modeling projects of international football tournaments.  With the World Cup upcoming in November in Qatar, I figured I'd publish my predictive model for the tournament with a couple thoughts on the model.

Some initial thoughts:

• Brazil and Argentina are likely being underrated, even as favorites coming into the tournament
• Iran is being heavily slept on as a mid-level contender, with most betting sites having them as joint bottom-dwellers (with Saudi Arabia, who are more likely properly rated)
• Group B is going to be a dogfight for 2nd place and Iran are just as likely as the USA or Wales to be at the top of that pile.
• These mfs ran through a VERY grueling AFC qualification and came out in the top of their group (they were the first team to clinch qualification)
• Qatar are more likely than not going to be the 2nd ever host team not to qualify for the knockout stage (they are one of the weakest hosts ever, by Elo to boot) but their group is highly volatile, so I couldn't totally rule it out.

Group stage predictions:

• Elo has not been kind to African federations in this world cup iteration- no team has been able to regularly separate themselves from the pack of other African sides, so there are no standout teams (not even African champions Senegal who have struggled to get consistent results over non-qualifiers such as Togo and Egypt).  This is all to say that perhaps the star power of a roster like Senegal's has another gear to shift into when on the global stage, and could be underrated by Elo, and prove to contend stronger in Group A.
• Group D projects to be the biggest walk, with France and Denmark over 80% to move on, and little chance given to Australia and Tunisia
• Groups A and B are projected to be the most competitive

These are just some up front thoughts regarding the models, and I will keep this blog updated as the model shift with friendlies in November, and as the tournament itself plays out.

Please leave a comment with who who you are rooting for in the cup, and ask if you have any questions regarding the model itself, modeling in general, or if there's any additional analysis you are interested in that I can help with!

Coming soon will be posts on Euro '24 qualifying, CONCACAF Nations League, and AFCON '23 qualifying.

Thanks-

Dopeisland