World Cup Update - After 11/25 Matches

And in gameday 6... we have our first elimination of the tournament.  Qatar, we hardly knew ye (unfortunately this only applies to the football team not the choice of host nation)

Group A has become slightly clearer after today's games.  As mentioned before, Qatar have been eliminated from contention, leaving Holland as a very likely RO16 team, and Ecuador and Senegal left to play for the last spot.  Ecuador can grab 1st place with a bigger margin-of-victory over Senegal than Netherlands have over Qatar... and Senegal would advance with a win (and very very possibly with a draw, although this involves Qatar stomping The Netherlands...unlikely).

Group B continues to be a dogfight.  With Iran's late heroics downing Wales and the USA drawing England 0-0, everyone is alive headed into round 3.  England's trip to the RO16 is essentially stamped, and the USA/Iran game will likely produce the other (USA win- they advance, Iran likely advance with a win/draw).

Model Summary

Group Stage Forecast

Odds Changes by Group

Knockout Stage Projection

Forecast for tomorrow's games