World Cup Update - After 11/26 Matches

Lionel Messi is inevitable... isn't he?  Argentina stays alive with a clutch defeat of Mexico thanks to a classic goal from Messi

Group C is a total dogfight now... what began with a surprising Saudi victory over Argentina has turned into a group where everything is to play for in round 3 of games.  Argentina has rightes the ship and still remains the overall #2 best odds to win the tournament, but one wrong step against Poland could spell the end of their run.

Group D has seen the first team in the tournament to qualify for the Round of 16... and although it isn't mathematically certain, my model has seen enough and declared them locks for the 1st seed in the group (they finish 1st in all 20,000 sims... seems pretty likely).  Denmark are the odds on favorite to be the 2nd team out, but they need to take care of business against Australia to do so.  Tunisia is hoping that France rests on their laurels and rests some key players, and maybe fate bounces their way.

Model Summary

Group Stage Forecast

Odds Changes by Group

Knockout Stage Projection

Forecast for tomorrow's games