World Cup Update - After 11/28 Matches

Two more teams are through to the round of 16 after the 2nd round of group stage matches concluded today.  Brazil and Portugal both stamped their passes to the knockout round with victories today, and only play for group seeding in round 3.

Group G simplified itself considerably today, as Brazil cemented their spot almost assuredly at the top of the group (0.1% chance to finish 2nd), and Cameroon can only advance with a win over Brazil and a favorable outcome of the Serbia-Switzerland matchup (namely a low-scoring draw, or close Serbia win).  Switzerland advances with a win over Serbia, and very likely with a draw over Serbia, with Serbia advancing (likely) only with a victory over Switzerland.  As expected, that matchup will be monumental in round 3 of matches.

Group H is in a very similar situation as Group G.  Portugal is guaranteed through, and almost assuredly sit atop the group (0.4% chance to finish 2nd).  South Korea will need a miracle victory over Portugal and some help in the other game to advance.  Barring such a win by Korea, Uruguay and Ghana will play for 2nd place in the group, with Ghana needing only a draw to advance.  More must watch TV here, folks.

Model Summary

Group Stage Forecast

Odds Changes by Group

Knockout Stage Projection

Forecast for tomorrow's games