World Cup Update - Quarterfinals Day 1

It's just going to be all drama from here, isn't it?  Right out of the gates today we've been treated to moments of magic from players delivering on the biggest stage.

Today's early match pitted tournament favorites Brazil against 2018 finalists Croatia, in a match that was an instant classic.  Both teams played to a 0-0 draw in 90', and seemed destined for penalties until Neymar's strike in the 106' to put Brazil into the lead.  It seemed inevitable the Seleção were through, until Bruno Petković's 117' goal evened things up, and we headed to penalties.  At this point, Brazil's original 76.4% chance at moving on had diminished to just 57.6% to begin the shootout (this is a factor of elo difference... good teams still win shootouts, but at a lower rate than they win games).  All it took was a saved Rodrygo shot and a missed Marquinhos shot, and Croatia buried their chances to ride their star keeper Livaković all the way to a semifinal date with Argentina.

After Brazil's morning defeat, the afternoon game became a matchup between the now #1 and #2 favorites to win the tournament, in Argentina and Netherlands.  The model had this game as an almost-tossup, with Argentina favored to win by 56%.  Messi, as usual, became the difference-maker early as he found an impossible ball through the backline which Nahuel Molina tactfully finished with his outside foot to take a 1-0 lead into halftime.  Messi doubled the lead in the second half with a PK goal.  Netherlands somehow managed to claw back even with 2 goals from Wout Weghorst in the 83' and 90+11'.  After a scoreless extra time (and 15 total yellow cards!!) Argentina edged out the Dutch in a penalty shootout, thanks to 2 huge saves from Emiliano Martínez, and move on to a semifinal matchup against Croatia.

Model Summary

Odds Changes in Round

Knockout Stage Current State / Projection

Forecast for tomorrow's games