AFCON 2023

Sup y'all-

Now that AFCON qualifiers have finished and we have our 24 qualified teams, it's time to look at the forecast for the tournament.  The draw is yet to commence, but we know the team pots, so we can model using randomized draws.  Once the draw is done, I'll post an update and see who are the winners and losers of the group stage draw.  Onto the model!

Unsurprisingly Morocco are the heavy favorites to win the next major tournament after their shock-the-world run to the Semis in Qatar in December.  North Africa are the heavy favorites here, as the 4 UNAF (Union of North African Football) teams account for 53% of the odds to lift the cup.  West Africa is the next group of favorites, as the UNAF and WAFU (West African Football Union) account for 10 of the top 11 likely winners.  Senegal are around 12% favorites to repeat as titleholders.

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