Euro Qualifying - Final Legs

Sup y'all-

Final stages of Euro '24 qualifying is upon us this month!!!  We have 2 (or 3, or uh, 4 in some cases) games remaining before the 24 team stage is set for next summer in Germany for the European Championships.

Officially there are 9 teams already locked into next summer, and the model has 3 other teams at 100% odds to qualify (though not mathematically guaranteed), with 4 more at 97% or more.  With 2 games left on the schedule though there are still 8 nations with between a 25% and 70% chance to qualify, which means that jockeying for final table position, tiebreakers, and playoff qualification is all to play for later this month.

Overall Model

Groups

Bracket

(Although Greece isn't guaranteed into the bracket yet, the model doesn't think it's at all possible for them to qualify directly.)

Match Forecasts