AFCON '25 Qualifiers

Sup y'all-

AFCON '23 was wild.  While my favorite AFCON moment was from the '21 version when the referee in the Tunisia / Mali match blew the game early at 85' before realizing what was going on and continuing the match.  Then he blew full time AGAIN at 89'!!! Amazing!!  '23 had a great storyline of Ivory Coast literally firing their coach after group stages and then going on to WIN THE TOURNAMENT.  Awesome continental action that allows Africa's best players to highlight their skills on the world stage.

This month's draw set the stage for AFCON '25 (Hosted in Morocco) Qualifiers which run in the September, October, and November windows at the end of this year.  Without much ado, let's look at the model!

The Model

Morocco are obviously qualified automatically by virtue of hosting (so there will only be 1 other qualifier from their group... but that's unlikely to be a weird situation bc of their likelihood to win the group anyway).  Tradition powerhouses such as Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon, and Algeria are not as high on the list as you'd think... it seems entirely possible that they won't all qualify.

Group Stage

Draw Deltas

Uganda, Sierra Leone, and the Republic of Congo were by far helped the most by the draw (as compared to a randomized model).  All 3 went from middling chances to serious contending chances due to the draw.  Sometimes it helps to have luck on your side!!

I'll be here with some more analysis once the matches start in September!

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