Euros '24 (After RO16)

Sup y'all-

What a first round of knockouts.  We only had one game go to penalties (almost RIP Ronaldo, instead Diogo Costa soul read the entire Slovenian roster).  England might take the cake for late game heroics, with Jude Bellingham's extra time bicycle kick goal a nominee for moment of the tournament so far.  Mert Gunok's last ditch point-blank save to see off the game for Turkiye is up there as well, what a save.  For the most part favorites did the thing in RO16, with only Italy and Austria being the favored teams to drop out (and one could argue Italy hadn't deserved to be favored against the Swiss).

The France side of the bracket seems to be the much stronger, with the top 3 most likely tournament winners all on one side (Spain, France, Germany, and Portugal make up 62% of the winning odds).  England might have an easier walk to the final than the other favorites, but Switzerland and the Netherlands may have something to say about that as well!!

The Model

Projected Bracket

Quarterfinal Matches

Update on it coming home: +2.50%

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