UEFA Nations League '24-'25

Sup y'all-

UEFA Nations League is back again to supplant a boring fall full of friendlies with ostensibly competitive games!! Supposedly this version of UNL is going to be important to World Cup qualifying (we already know it is in serving to give teams path to the back door playoffs for qualifying... but it also could be the basis for WCQ seeding).

Spain are the defending champs... and as Euro '24 champs are heavy favorites to repeat (elo really really loves them right now.  100 points over any other team - just France - and 200 over anyone else).  The model has them at 40% chance to win which seems pretty heavy... we will see!!

Model Overview

Group Stage Model

Matchday 1 Forecast


Potential WCQ Pots Model

If UEFA does use Nations League finish as the seeding criteria for the draw, here is how each team likely shakes out for that draw:

Comments

Popular Posts